Copyright 2016 Nexstar Broadcasting, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

NEW YORK – Dec. 12, 2016 – A sustained period of rising rates could freeze homeowners who currently have a historically low mortgage rate – homeowners who might want to upgrade to a bigger or better house, but who make a financial decision to stay put in order to save money.

This type of housing situation, which economists call "rate lock," could weigh on housing demand in 2017, economists said. A seven-year run of historically low mortgage rates has encouraged home buying and helped increase prices sharply after the housing crash. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, for example, reached a record in September.

But mortgage rates have jumped more than half a percentage point since the presidential election, and economists are bracing for higher rates in 2017.

Rising rates make mortgage payments more expensive, and that gives homeowners an incentive to remain in place rather than trade up, says Nela Richardson, chief economist at real-estate brokerage firm Redfin.

"It doesn't take much to turn off the faucet in this market because inventory is so low and prices have gone up so quickly," Richardson says.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.13 percent last Thursday, according to mortgage company Freddie Mac, up from 3.54 percent before the election. That was the highest level since October 2014.

The latest bump boosts the monthly cost of owning the typical U.S. home by more than $70 a month, or about $26,000 over the life of a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, according to Black Knight Financial Services.

Source: Wall Street Journal (12/12/16)

© Copyright 2016 INFORMATION, INC. Bethesda, MD (301) 215-4688

SAN FRANCISCO – Dec. 7, 2016 – The recent presidential election had a strong influence on buyers' attitudes based on political party, according to the 2017 Housing Outlook Report released by Trulia. The surprising outcome injected both optimism and pessimism into consumers' expectations about next year's housing market.

• After the election, Republicans seemed to feel a surge of renewed positivity toward the 2017 housing market, saying it will be a better than 2016 thanks to a 26 percentage point swing toward optimism compared to numbers before the election.
• Democrats turned bearish, swinging from a position of optimism before the election to pessimism after. Democrats' optimism about buying a home in 2017 fell 23 percentage points after the election.

The survey also found that fewer Americans viewed homeownership as a part of their American Dream for the first time since 2011, with the percentage dropping to 72 percent from 75 percent last year. Millennials, aged 18-34, saw the biggest drop, to 72 percent from 80 percent. However, 83 percent of millennials still plan on buying a home, but most (72 percent) won't do so until at least the end of 2018.

And while rising mortgage rates could move homeownership out of reach for some Americans, most people in the survey didn't rank rising rates as a top concern.

Top consumer concerns about buying a home

• Saving for a downpayment (59 percent)
• Having poor credit (38 percent)
• Rising home prices (35 percent)

Florida metros dominate top 10 "markets to watch in 2017"

Trulia identified 10 real estate markets poised for growth based on strong job numbers over the past year, low vacancy rates, high affordability, online home searches on Trulia, and a large share of Republican households given their 2017 optimism. Based on these metrics, three Florida metros have market conditions strong enough to land the top three spots heading into next year: Jacksonville, Cape Coral-Fort Myers and Deltona-Daytona Beach.

Top 10 housing markets to watch in 2017

1. Jacksonville

2. Cape Coral-Fort Myers

3. Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach

4. Grand Rapids

5. Tampa-St. Petersburg

6. Colorado Springs, Colo.

7. Charleston, S.C.

8. San Antonio, Texas

9. Phoenix, Ariz.

10. North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton

Harris Poll conducted the surveys online from Oct. 26 to Oct. 28 among 2,007 adults (aged 18 and older) and again Nov. 15 to 17 among 2,081 adults (aged 18 and over) by on behalf of Trulia.

© 2016 Florida Realtors®

NEW YORK – Dec. 2, 2016 – Smaller homes have seen significant price growth over larger ones, and that means some homeowners may be sitting on a lot of equity – more than they may realize. With mortgage rates still low by historical standards but expected to edge up soon, homeowners with equity in their current home may find this is the perfect time to trade up into a larger one.

According to Fortune Magazine, many growing families are in a housing sweet spot right now that will likely continue into the first part of 2017: Between 2011 and 2016, the average price on a two-bedroom house rose 59 percent nationwide, but four-bedroom homes only rose 41 percent, according to ATTOM Data Solutions.

In many markets, move-up buyers will also find more choices in the higher price ranges. Housing supplies have increased nearly 8 percent in the $500,000 to $750,000 range.

Due to the increased equity in their smaller home, many sellers should be in a good position to walk away with more money from their home sale to use for their next downpayment. And move-up sellers may be more motivated to choose a higher offer over a speedier close, says Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors®.

However, small home sellers who want to move up should get their financing in order quickly. The record-low mortgage rates in 2016 aren't expected to last much longer. Average rates are predicted to rise as much as half a percent in 2017, says Dan Smith, president of PrivatePlus Mortgage.

While rates should still remain historically low, any increase makes a mortgage less affordable. If rates jump from 3.7 percent to 4.2 percent on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, for example, it would mean an $864 rise in annual payments on a $250,000 mortgage.

Source: "The One Big Real Estate Trend You Need to Understand in 2017," Fortune (Nov. 27, 2016)

© Copyright 2016 INFORMATION, INC. Bethesda, MD (301) 215-4688

PANAMA CITY BEACH, Fla.

WASHINGTON (AP) – Dec. 1, 2016 – Long-term U.S. mortgage rates marked a fifth week of surges in the aftermath of Donald Trump's election win, reaching their highest levels this year.

Mortgage giant Freddie Mac said Thursday the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan rose to 4.08 percent from 4.03 percent the previous week. The benchmark rate topped its 3.93 percent level of a year ago.

The rate on 15-year home loans, a popular choice for people who are refinancing, jumped to 3.34 percent from 3.25 percent.

Long-term mortgage and interest rates have climbed in the four weeks since Trump's surprise victory on Nov. 9 to become the country's next president.

Bond investors are looking toward tax cuts and increased government spending to upgrade roads, bridges and airports under a Trump administration, which could fuel inflation. That would depress prices of long-term Treasury bonds because inflation would erode their value over time. When bond investors foresee rising inflation, they demand higher long-term yields and pay lower prices for bonds. Bond yields move opposite to prices and also influence long-term mortgage rates.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond stood at 2.38 percent Wednesday, the same as a week earlier and up from 1.87 percent on Election Day Nov. 8. It climbed to 2.45 percent Thursday morning, its highest level since July 2015.

More immediately, Federal Reserve policymakers are expected to raise the central bank's benchmark rate at their Dec. 13-14 meeting for the first time in nearly a year. Fed Chair Janet Yellen recently told Congress that the case for a rate boost has "continued to strengthen."

The effect of advancing mortgage rates could be seen in reduced activity by prospective homebuyers. Applications for mortgage loans fell 9.4 percent in the week ended Nov. 25 from a week earlier, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Applications for refinancing dipped 16 percent.

Higher mortgage rates, along with rising house prices, could eventually reduce demand for housing.

To calculate average mortgage rates, Freddie Mac surveys lenders across the country between Monday and Wednesday each week.

The average doesn't include extra fees, known as points, which most borrowers must pay to get the lowest rates. One point equals 1 percent of the loan amount.

The average fee for a 30-year mortgage was unchanged this week at 0.5 point. The fee on 15-year loans also remained at 0.5 point.

Rates on adjustable five-year loans rose to 3.15 percent from 3.12 percent. The fee was steady at 0.4 point.

 Copyright © 2016 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.   

ORLANDO, Fla. – Nov. 22, 2016 – Florida's housing marketreported higher median prices and fewer all-cash sales in October, according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®. Shortfalls in inventory continued to impact sales statewide: Single-family home sales totaled 20,194, down 5.3% from October 2015, while townhouse-condo sales totaled 7,955, down 12.3 percent compared to a year ago.

"Florida's housing market continues to experience fewer sales of distressed properties and a restricted supply of homes for sale," said 2016 Florida Realtors®President Matey H. Veissi, broker and co-owner of Veissi & Associates in Miami. "A shortage of new listings could impact home sales in the long run. When you look at the state's tight inventory of homes and a decline in the median time it takes for a home to sell (go under contract), it shows buyers are still in the market. However, they're not finding as many potential options as they'd like."

Home sellers continued to get more of their original asking price at the closing table in October: Sellers of existing single-family homes received 96.1 percent (median percentage) of their original listing price, while those selling townhouse-condo properties received 94.8 percent (median percentage).

The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes last month was $220,000, up 11.7 percent from the previous year, according to data from Florida Realtors research department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. Thestatewide median price for townhouse-condo properties in October was $161,000, up 8.1 percent over the year-ago figure.

In October, statewide median sales prices for both single-family homes and townhouse-condo properties rose year-over-year for the 59th month in a row, Veissi noted. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

Accordingto the National Association of Realtors®(NAR), thenational median sales price for existing single-family homes in September 2016 was $235,700, up 5.6 percent from the previous yearthe national median existing condo price was$222,100.In California, the statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes in September was $514,320; in Massachusetts, it was $350,000; in Maryland, it was $266,294; and in New York, it was $250,000.

Closed sales data reflected fewer short sales and cash-only sales in October: Short sales for single-family homes declined 39.4 percent while short sales for townhouse-condo properties dropped 37.2 percent. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.

"It's hard to say at this point what may be behind the weaker sales numbers in October – trends are difficult to spot based on one-month's worth of data," said Florida Realtors®Chief Economist Brad O'Connor. "While it's tempting to consider the possibility that Hurricane Matthew or the imminent (at that time) presidential election played a major role in October's sales figures, let's remember the typical property sale that closed in October probably went under contract a month or two prior. And in the particular case of Matthew, the decline in October's sales did not uniformly appear to be any worse along the Atlantic coast than anywhere else in the state.

"Of course, a limited supply of for-sale homes, coupled with rising median prices, are two factors to consider when looking at closed sales data."

Inventory dipped to a 4.2-months' supply in October for single-family homes and was at a 5.9-months' supply for townhouse-condo properties, according to Florida Realtors.

According to Freddie Mac, the interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.47 percent in October 2016, significantly lower than the 3.80 percent average recorded during the same month a year earlier.

For the full statewide housing activity reports, go to Florida Realtors Research and Statistics on floridarealtors.org. Realtors also have access to local market stats (password protected) on Florida Realtors’ website.

Related: NAR: Existing-home sales jump again in Oct.

© 2016 Florida Realtors®